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Summary China's reopening set to drive record 2023 oil demand -IEAChinese oil demand to rebound in 2023 -OPECRecord U.S. shale oil output seen in Feb -EIAAPI reports due at 4.30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT)LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday to their highest since early December on optimism that the lifting of China's strict COVID-19 curbs will lead to a fuel demand recovery in the world's top oil importer. China's economic growth slowed sharply to 3% in 2022, missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and marking its second-worst performance since 1976. Analysts polled by Reuters see 2023 growth rebounding to 4.9%. But OPEC kept its 2023 global demand growth forecast unchanged.
Brent futures rose 72 cents, or 0.8%, to $86.64 a barrel by 11:46 a.m. EST (1646 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 94 cents, or 1.2%, to $81.12. But the data still beat analysts' forecasts after China started rolling back its zero-COVID policy in early December. The lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in China is set to boost global oil demand to a record high this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while price cap sanctions on Russia could dent supply. A report showing U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in December provided some counterintuitive support for oil prices. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Jan 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday but were holding near their highest levels this month as easing COVID restrictions in China raised hopes of a demand recovery in the world's top crude importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.01, or 1.3%, at $78.85 in thin trade on a U.S. public holiday. "The narrative that Chinese growth is going to add to demand is playing a very large part here. Traffic levels in China are rebounding from record lows after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, resulting in stronger demand for crude and oil products, ANZ analysts said in a note. The United Arab Emirates' energy minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, said on Monday that oil markets were balanced.
Buyers are rushing to fill European oil storage tanks with Russian diesel, with flows this month on track to hit a one-year high. FEB. 5 EU BANThe European Union banned seaborne Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 and will ban Russian oil products from Feb. 5, in a move aimed at depriving Moscow of revenue. The Group of Seven nations (G7), Australia and the 27 European Union countries also implemented on Dec. 5 a price cap on Russian crude. This allowed non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than $60. DIESEL PRICESSince Europe is heavily reliant on Russian diesel imports, the Feb. 5 ban is expected to support profit margins for the fuel, analysts say.
The ban is likely to create a diesel supply shortfall that Europe hopes to fill with Chinese fuel, some of which will be produced from Russian crude. China has raised its first batch of 2023 export quotas for refined oil products by nearly half from a year ago. "But without Chinese exports pushing swing barrels westward, Europe is unlikely to replace the 0.5 million bpd loss in Russian diesel exports come the embargo," Energy Aspects analysts said. Russia has long been the main diesel supplier for Europe, where refineries do not produce enough to meet domestic demand from its large diesel car fleet. Reuters GraphicsAn EU ban on Russian crude imports that took effect in December will be broadened to include refined fuels from Feb. 5.
ETHOUSTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged slightly higher on Tuesday as the U.S. government forecast record global petroleum consumption next year and as the dollar hovered at seven-month lows. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as greenback-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. But analysts said a revival of Chinese demand may only give oil prices limited support under downward pressure from the global economy. Goldman Sachs expects that the growing ability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise prices without hurting demand too much will limit downside risks to its bullish oil forecast for 2023. Separately, U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and distillates were expected to have fallen last week, a Reuters poll showed.
ETHOUSTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed marginally on Tuesday as the U.S. government forecast record global petroleum consumption next year and as the dollar hovered at seven-month lows. Thursday's data "could easily clarify the direction of the financial and oil markets for weeks to come", said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as greenback-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. But analysts said a revival of Chinese demand may only give oil prices limited support under downward pressure from the global economy. Separately, U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and distillates were expected to have fallen last week, a Reuters poll showed.
For the week, both Brent and WTI were down over 8%, their biggest weekly dives to start the year since 2016. "The oil market might be regaining some composure following the bloodbath earlier this week, but the upside potential remains limited, at least in the near term. That U.S. jobs report caused the U.S. dollar to rally as investors bet that inflation is easing and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) need not be as aggressive as some feared. A weaker dollar can boost demand for oil, as dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies. Stock markets in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, logged a five-day winning streak on Friday on investors' expectations that the Chinese economy would soon emerge from its COVID woes and stage a robust recovery in 2023.
Conflicting headlines about demand from top oil importer China have buffeted traders in recent weeks. Brent crude futures for February delivery fell by $1.06, or 1.3%, to $82.20 a barrel by 11:52 a.m. EST [1652 GMT]. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and can boost demand. Oil prices also gained some support after inventories update for last week from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Despite a surprise build in crude oil stocks, the report itself was positive, said Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS, adding it showed a solid rebound in implied oil demand, resulting in large draws of refined products last week.
LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices pared losses after falling by over $2 earlier in the session, as a weaker dollar partially offset demand fears resulting from surging COVID-19 cases in China. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.07, or 1.36%, to $77.89 a barrel, after reaching session lows of $76.79. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and can boost demand. U.S. crude oil inventories fell less than expected, by about 1.3 million barrels, in the week ended Dec. 23, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Markets, however, drew some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's ban on exports of crude oil and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abide by a Western price cap.
Oil falls as China COVID spike dampens demand outlook
  + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by over 2% on Thursday as surging COVID-19 cases in China dimmed hopes of a recovery in fuel demand for the world's largest crude oil importer. U.S. crude oil inventories fell less than expected, by about 1.3 million barrels, in the week ended Dec. 23, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Markets, however, drew some support from Russian President Vladimir Putin's ban on exports of crude oil and oil products from Feb. 1 for five months to nations that abide by a Western price cap. Germany said the ban has "no practical significance" as the country has been working since spring to replace Russian oil supplies and ensure security of supply. Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft said Kazakhstan's KazTransOil had requested an additional 1.2 million tonnes of capacity on the Druzhba pipeline for 2023 to facilitate extra oil shipments to Germany, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
Brent crude futures for February delivery fell by a dollar to settle at $82.26, down 1.2%. U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports climbed and exports fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday. Despite the surprise build in crude oil stocks, the report itself was "positive" and showed a "solid rebound" in implied oil demand, resulting in large draws of refined products, said Giovanni Staunovo of Swiss bank UBS. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. Shutdown of the line hit supplies in the U.S. and briefly lifted oil prices, although there was little change to either benchmark after settlement.
Brent crude futures for February delivery were up by $2.23, or 2.8%, at $82.22 a barrel by 12:20 p.m. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.03, or 2.7%, to $78.26. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.89 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), compared with estimates for a drop of 1.66 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 242,000 barrels, according to EIA data, compared with analyst estimates for a build of 336,000 barrels. Overall, Russian oil exports fell by 11% month on month for Dec. 1-20 after the European Union's embargo on Russian oil came into force, the Kommersant daily reported.
LONDON/MOSCOW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The trading arm of Azerbaijan's state oil firm SOCAR has paused purchases of Russian crude oil for its Turkish refinery as the industry grapples with EU sanctions on shipping and crude, sources familiar with the matter said. Turkish refineries, including SOCAR's STAR plant, had increased purchases of Russian crude after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russian flows to Turkey had already dropped last month to their lowest since February, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, and a source said SOCAR was reviewing the situation in order to remain compliant with Western sanctions. Reporting by Reuters reporters, Rowena Edwards and Julia Payne in London; Editing by Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The build in fuel stocks outweighed a 5.2 million barrel draw in crude stocks. The American Petroleum Institute had reported a crude stocks draw of around 6.4 million barrels, according to market sources. China's crude oil imports in November rose 12% from a year earlier to their highest in 10 months, data showed. "If confidence in uninterrupted Russian oil supply has played any part in the recent weakness, it was probably misplaced. Tankers getting delayed in Turkish waters is a prime example of that," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said.
The European Union banned Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 and will ban Russian oil products from Feb. 5, as it attempts to deprive Russia of oil revenues. Blending Russian diesel elsewhere with a non-Russian equivalent would not change its origin, while refining Russian Urals crude into diesel elsewhere would. Russian diesel is likely to be delivered to and re-exported from countries such as India and Turkey, market sources said. Europe has already started to replace Russian diesel imports with refined product from the Middle East, but analysts also expect India to refine more Urals and increase diesel exports to Europe. Many of the larger oil companies, including BP (BP.L) and Shell have self-imposed sanctions on Russian oil and oil products.
Oil prices fall on economic fears, dollar strength
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in a volatile market on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar stayed strong and economic uncertainty offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil and the prospects of a demand boost in China. Brent crude futures fell $1.21, or $1.46%, to $81.47 a barrel by 1254 GMT. In China, more cities are easing COVID-19-related curbs, prompting expectations of increased demand in the world's top oil importer. The price cap adds to the disruption caused by the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. Russia has declared its intention not to sell oil to anyone who signs up to the price cap.
Oil prices fall on higher U.S. dollar, economic fears
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Rowena Edwards | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell in a volatile market on Tuesday, as a stronger U.S. dollar and economic uncertainty offset the bullish impact of a price cap placed on Russian oil and prospects of a demand boost in China. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, reducing demand for the commodity. In China, more cities are easing COVID-19-related curbs, prompting optimism for increased demand in the world's top oil importer. The price cap comes on top of the EU's embargo on imports of Russian crude by sea and similar pledges by the United States, Canada, Japan and Britain. Russia has declared its intention not to sell oil to anyone who signs up to the price cap.
Summary No discussions of Russian price cap so far - delegatesOil prices have come under pressure from weak economyLONDON/DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The decision comes two days after the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed a price cap on Russian oil. Oil prices have declined since October due to slower Chinese and global growth and higher interest rates. On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in a move to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue while keeping Russian oil flowing to global markets. Moscow said it would not sell its oil under the cap and was analysing how to respond.
Summary OPEC+ to begin virtual talks at 1100 GMTNo discussions of Russian price cap so far - delegatesWill keep existing cuts in placeLONDON/DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is poised to stick to its oil output targets when it meets on Sunday, four OPEC+ sources said as the alliance gathers after the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed a price cap on Russian oil. Washington accused the group and one of its leaders, Saudi Arabia, of siding with Russia despite Moscow's war in Ukraine. OPEC+ argued it had cut output because of a weaker economic outlook. OPEC met virtually on Saturday without Russia and allies and did not discuss the Russian price cap, sources have said. OPEC+ begins talks at 1100 GMT with a meeting of the advisory Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) panel, followed by the full ministerial conference.
On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in a move to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue while keeping Russian oil flowing to global markets. OPEC virtually met on Saturday without allies such as Russia and discussed mostly administrative matters, sources said. The ministers did not discuss the Russian price cap. Five OPEC+ delegates said on Saturday the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday would likely approve a policy rollover. On Friday, two separate OPEC+ sources said a further output cut was not completely off the table given concern about economic growth and demand.
"It is unlikely there will be any change to the policy," an OPEC+ source said. Talks begin on Saturday when OPEC ministers hold a virtual meeting at 1100 GMT. Some OPEC+ delegates and analysts are not ruling out a surprise at Sunday's meeting. JPMorgan, in a report this week, said OPEC+ was likely to hold the line at the meeting while leaving the door open to a cut of more than 500,000 bpd if demand deteriorates further. Reporting by Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Ahmad Ghaddar and Rowena Edwards; Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The group agreed in early October to cut its oil production target by 2 million bpd from November until the end of 2023. Given production restraints on some members of the alliance, the actual cut the group is expected to deliver is closer to between 1 million and 1.1 million bpd. "A further cut in production cannot ... be ruled out," PVM Oil analyst Stephen Brennock said. "Failure to do so risks sparking another selling frenzy," he added, without saying how low he thought prices could go. Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultancy Energy Aspects, told bank Jefferies that she did not expect OPEC+ to change tack yet.
But the likelihood that OPEC+ will leave output unchanged at its upcoming meeting limited the gains. Brent crude futures rose $2.22, or 2.67% to $85.25 per barrel by 1340 GMT. Support followed expectations of tighter crude supply. U.S. crude oil stocks dropped by 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Russia would not supply oil to countries imposing a price cap, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, five OPEC+ sources said, although two sources said an additional production cut was also likely to be considered to bolster prices that have slid due to fears of an economic slowdown. Five OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the Sunday meeting would most likely roll over existing policy. Two more sources said the group could discuss another output cut, although neither thought another cut was highly likely. Top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia on Nov. 21 said OPEC+ was sticking with output cuts and could take further measures to balance the market. The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iraq met on Thursday and stressed the importance of adhering to OPEC+ output cuts that last until the end of 2023, the Saudi energy ministry said in a statement on Friday.
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